The covid-19 pandemic makes it necessary to work from home and self-quarantine as much as possible. Italy's health system was overwhelmed by too many infections occurring at the same time; consequently, some patients could not be helped in hospitals and passed away. This simulation illustrates the advantage or self-quarantine, not just for those who are able to do it, but also for those who cannot. You can adjust the contagiousness of the infection, the fraction of the population in self-quarantine, and the capacity of the healthcare system to treat patients, then press the start button and see the epidemic evolve in a densely populated city. A base mortality rate of 1% is assumed; but once the capacity of the healthcare system is exceeded, the excess in patients cannot be treated, and this mortality probability p(t) increases. "Flattening the curve" through self-quarantine (and best possible personal hygiene) thus becomes vitally important.

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Disclaimer: Keep in mind that this is a toy model. While it guides the intuition, no quantitative real-world decisions should be based on its predictions.

© W. Bauer, MSU 2020